7/30/2023 0 Comments Survivor grid![]() To maximize your edge in an NFL survivor contest, you need apply a thought process similar to value-based drafting in fantasy football. The Holy Trinity Of Survivor Pick Strategy Get Picks Now Free Access Offers Available Often times, you’re only taking a modest amount of additional risk by avoiding the biggest favorite. In addition, the safety premium between the biggest favorite and other larger favorites often isn’t as large as people think. In short, thinking that you’re not taking substantial risks - even if you pick the safest team every week - is a fallacy. You’re defying the odds just getting to Week 6. So on average, even picking a 10-point favorite every single week, you are not expected to survive past Week 5 in an NFL survivor pool. riskier teams).īut just for the sake of example, let’s assume you can pick a 10-point favorite every single week. From a probability standpoint, you would have: ![]() Double digit favorites in the NFL are also rare, and in most weeks, especially as the season goes on and your quiver of available teams shrinks, you will need to pick smaller favorites than that (i.e. No team is a lock in today’s NFL.Ĭonsider that historically, 10-point favorites in the NFL have won about 85% of the time. Safety Is An IllusionĪnother thing to keep in mind is that in NFL survivor pools, there is no such thing as a “safe” pick. After all, most of your opponents would still be alive too. It provides the illusion of being good (“Woot, I’m still alive in Week 8 this year!”), when in fact your odds to win the pool would likely not have gone up very much. But Outcome 2 isn’t exactly cause for huge celebration either.
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